Wednesday, 6 February 2008

I'll have to follow up on these predictions from
as to the fallout of Super Tuesday.

'But there are three points that I think will likely emerge as the night goes on:

1. McCain will not lock this up tonight. He'll have to go on to win Virginia and likely all the way to Texas, but if the exit polls hold, he has to hope that Huckabee - who's played his wingman for about the past three weeks - continues to play nice and is content to coast to being the Last Action Hero's Veep.

2. Romney continues to perform horribly in the South, despite having a ton of endorsements and a very good campaign organization. The South is still the most personality-driven political arena in America, and there are some things that not even money and machines can overcome. I don't think he's going to get enough momentum out of the West to change that in the coming primaries.

3. I respect Dr. Dobson more than a lot of other folks, but the idea of releasing a statement that he'll stay home and won't vote in a McCain-Clinton election this late in the game indicates to me that he isn't all that enthused about throwing support to Huckabee or Romney. Had Dobson announced this a week ago, he would've had a definite impact today, and moved a few key points to whoever he wished. But by waiting and making this a non-factor, I think it's a sign that as much as he dislikes McCain, Dobson is resigned to the fact that he's the likeliest nominee.

My prescription for getting through the night: I recommend strong bourbon and a large dose of Michael Barone and Karl Rove.'

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